Preparation is the key to success in fantasy basketball. I gathered industry experts for the 12-team, nine-category live draft to get a peak at current trends, player values and draft nuances in key statistical categories. Let’s dive in and give special thanks to everyone who participated.
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Mock draft results can be found here.
The Fantastic Four and all
The top four picks in the league category drafts have been consistent throughout the offseason. There was no difference here, as Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokić were the first two options, followed by Luka Dončić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The draft gets really interesting once the consensus top four are gone. It’s all a matter of preference and risk appetite. On a per-game basis, Joel Embiid is in the top three players, but knowing that his name is synonymous with missed games, I understand that he drops to eighth.
Call the guardian(s)
The first round back started a significant trend of guards flying off the board. Sixty-seven percent of second-round picks were point guards — meaning players who generally have high usage rates and cross-category production in points, assists, three-pointers, free throw percentage and steals are fairly concentrated in the early rounds. .
Of course, you can assist with a punt, but I don’t recommend it; pick a top guard by round 4 because the drop is real.
Going back to the bigs for a moment, after Embiid was selected eighth overall, only four right-center players (Chet Holmgren, Domantas Sabonis, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Karl-Anthony Towns) were selected from picks 9-36 .Sabonis’ passing ability can’t be understated, so dropping to 2.10 was a huge steal this draft, considering he’s a threat to lead the league in double-doubles.
Large tree(s) fall hard
Rounds 4 and 5 focused on big players, and 14 of the 24 picks in those two rounds were PF or C-eligible players. The usual draft strategy is to take guards early and draft them in the mid-round to provide rebounds, blocks and FGs %. That is what has been done here.
Seeing Immanuel Quickley go in the fourth round hurt my soul because he’s gone at least a round later in most drafts I’ve been a part of — no more discounts, y’all. Similarly, as a true Isaiah Hartenstein, seeing him in the fifth round was a significant jump from his ADP, which currently sits at 82.1 over the past seven days in Yahoo Fantasy drafts.
Bring your boys + mispriced vets
By the time we got to the middle of the draft in the 6th round, you started to see a mix of fantasy managers getting their guys and value dropping. Cam Thomas, Alex Caruso and Chris Paul went higher than expected in the sixth and seventh rounds, respectively.
On the other hand, Julius Randle, D’Angelo Russell, and Josh Giddey look like valuable picks relative to where I project them to finish this season.
If you play rebounds and blocks, the 9th round is the cutoff point for picking a decent big man. Jonas Valančiūnas, Jusuf Nurkić, Clint Capela and Ivica Zubac left the board before the 10th round.
Late round breakthroughs
A lot of my breakthroughs go through this area – Jonathan Kuminga, Onyeka Okongwu and Amen Thompson. Underrated picks behind the 10th round were Collin Sexton, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Dyson Daniels and Keyonte George. There is icsignificant veteran depth going in the later rounds, like Al Horford, Marcus Smart and Norman Powell — all guys who will be impact players for their teams this season.
Final thoughts
All in all, it was a fun draft. As a guy who left unhappy with his team after being drafted 12th, should you try to stick with your plan or pivot if necessary? Running high-assist guards and waiting to hit bigs in the early to mid rounds will vary each draft, so be agile and willing to adjust if you’re aiming for balance or potential punting based on how the draft falls to you.