The Pac-12 is back.
Well, almost.
The “Conference of Champions” is on the road to renewal, starting from acquisition of four Mountain West schools on Thursday: Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State and Fresno State. They will start playing in the new league in the fall of 2026.
That brings Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould to six members with Oregon and Washington state. It needs at least two more additions to meet the NCAA’s minimum threshold to qualify as an FBS conference, and it only has a few months to do so. The Pac-12 must reach eight members by July 2026, the end of the NCAA’s two-year grace period that allows the league to re-establish itself.
That seems like a long time. In the world of such massive and expensive moves, it is not. The Pac-12 would prefer to have its full membership during negotiations for a new television contract, something they would likely want to solidify sooner rather than later. Any TV network would rather know what it’s buying before it buys it.
In its statement announcing the new members Thursday, the Pac-12 provided criteria for additional new members. But as is often the case, brand strength, on-field success and television markets will move the needle more than anything else. However, there are other factors to consider, such as the total number of members. You don’t want to dilute yourself too much and accept programs that don’t add enough value.
Remember, television contracts serve as the biggest revenue generator for athletic departments. You have to distribute the television money – often evenly – to your members. With each new member, you reduce the amount of the whole.
Something else to consider: exit and penalty fees for potential new members. That can be expensive, and despite the story that the Pac-12 has endless cash to pay for all those transactions, it doesn’t. Yes, the conference has more than $100 million in new revenue thanks to bowl contracts, CFP distribution and NCAA tournament units, but it uses many of those funds for operational purposes.
But enough about all this. Who else could or would the Pac-12 invite? The league wants to be known as “the best of the rest” outside of the strongest leagues. Who would agree to the move? And what is the impact on other G5 conferences and college sports as a whole?
ACC and Big 12
The first option for the Pac-12 was not to renew. It was a good option that suited them, but it was certainly not a priority. Oregon State and Washington State’s best option was the same as every other school that left looking for a home after Washington and Oregon left for the Big Ten: They wanted to join an established power conference.
Overtures to the Big 12 and ACC went nowhere. They have shown little or no interest like last fall when the leagues took Colorado, Utah, Arizona State and Arizona (Big 12), and Stanford and Cal (ACC).
There was hope, sometimes even publicly expressed, that a significant realignment event in the ACC — FSU, Clemson and another outing — would set off a domino effect that could benefit the future of the Pac-12. Maybe they could serve as a replacement and form an ACC west coast wing with Stanford and Cal? Or maybe the Cardinal and Bears would be willing, in an ACC left in disarray, to join them in their rebuild?
Neither happened.
That leaves them here – rebuilding with the addition of Mountain West schools. And before you ask, Stanford and Cal signed the ACC grant of rights, tying them to the league until 2036 as the current contract is written (this is not new information and was announced last fall when the two programs joined the conference).
For now, as the ACC agreement is written, they are not candidates for Pac-12 renewal. But one day, if the ACC starts losing members, could they be? Of course.
For now, that’s not the case, and it would likely take a catastrophic event to convince the two to turn down every million in ACC television revenue to return to the Pac-12. While they don’t yet receive full ACC shares, they will eventually and those numbers are expected to be significantly higher than the Pac-12’s TV value (even triple figures).
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American athletics
If the Pac-12’s next coveted expansion targets were in the Mountain West other than the four already listed, they likely would have taken them this week.
They didn’t — a sign that they might first look for candidates from the east. That includes a host of programs, many of which are now members of the American Athletic Conference, for years the leading Group of Five league in college athletics.
The AAC has the most attractive members from the TV market, brand value and prospects for success on the field, including Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, North Texas, Rice and even one in Florida (South Florida). Texas schools would be strong travel partners for each other. The same goes for Tulane and Rice, two top academic institutions that are in close proximity (although Rice is a hard sell).
Given the opportunity — not everyone will gain interest in the Pac-12 (this is speculative) — those schools must decide whether moving to a conference across the country, in a completely different region and cultural fit, will offset the Pac-12’s brand and television value. .
The problem: We don’t actually know his television value, but those in the Pac-12 estimate it’s higher than the Group of Five’s best contract, which is the American, which pays its original members around $8-10 million a year.
If the Pac-12 costs $10-12 million per school, is it worth moving to another country? What about $15 million? This last figure seems high, but who knows.
Don’t expect new AAC commissioner Tim Pernetti to be anything but proactive. According to those familiar with his thinking, Pernetti is interested in Mountain West programs such as Air Force. Pernetti already has Army and Navy in his conference. Air Force is a reasonable and attractive addition, and AAC could offer more in distribution than the Mountain West, which costs around $5-6 million.
But the American League isn’t the only league with teams of interest in the Pac-12. The Sun Belt has the state of Texas, an up-and-coming athletic department with an up-and-coming football program, a large student body and a location just outside of the booming Austin metro area.
Something to also keep in mind with all of this: The Pac-12 has lost its designation as an autonomous/power conference, a moniker that gave it more voting privileges within NCAA governance and more revenue in the CFP distribution model.
While they are unlikely to regain status, there is a “look-back” provision in the CFP contract after the 2027 playoffs that can be triggered to reassess revenue distribution. The Pac-12, if stable enough with enough brands, could make an argument for more CFP money.
Mountain West
What if the Pac-12 gets blocked in the East?
That leaves them with few choices but to refocus their attention on members of the Mountain West.
Many around college athletics expressed surprise that UNLV was not included in the initial phase of Pac-12 expansion. Located in a big city with a rising football program, the potential is there.
However, politics is at play. According to those familiar with the discussions, the separation of the two — the University of Nevada and UNLV — presents an obstacle. That doesn’t mean it can’t be done. And maybe they could move to the Pac-12 together later. Or has the hurdle been crossed and UNLV is moving on its own?
The Pac-12’s interest in other Mountain West programs isn’t clear, and there’s, again, a reason why they likely weren’t invited in the first round.
But it begs the question: What is Mountain West doing?
Commissioner Gloria Nevarez is not sitting idly by. In fact, the league has vetted possible members, something that goes back to last year when San Diego State and Boise State considered joining the old Pac-12.
New Mexico State, new to Conference USA, makes sense geographically. Like UTEP, also in CUSA. Both programs would likely see a doubling of annual distributions. Can I even get a signing bonus? The Mountain West must pay as much as $110 million in exit and penalty fees from the four departing members and the Pac-12.
Tarleton State, an up-and-coming FCS program with a ton of money and a potential residency outside of Dallas-Fort Worth, is also a possible option. And what about FCS teams like North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Montana State and Montana?
Keep in mind that the NCAA recently increased the entry fee for those moving from the FCS to the FBS to a whopping $5 million.
Basketball schools
Back to the Pac-12.
There are plenty of West Coast basketball brands that could be attractive to any new Pac-12 conference. On the lighter side is Gonzaga, a program with a storied basketball tradition that routinely advances to the Sweet 16 and has reached the Final Four twice since 2017.
For the longest time, conference powers have flirted with the Zags, who don’t offer football. The latest release came via the Big 12, which entered into serious consideration with the school last year before deciding against the addition.
Gonzaga also makes sense geographically, being just 80 miles north of the Washington State campus. There are multiple programs in the west that offer success in basketball. Saint Mary’s, for example, is located in Moraga, California.
But the Pac-12 doesn’t want to grow too much because it cuts into other programs’ revenue distribution.
And so, the Pac-12’s quest to rebuild moves forward. They will almost certainly head east first, then back west, so… who knows.
Washington State President Kirk Schulz, a key leader in the rebuilding effort, suggested to Yahoo Sports in an interview earlier this week that more movement is on the way.
“In five years, when this grant of rights expires, there will probably be more interference again. How do I prepare Washington State to have a choice in the future?”